9/5/12
If you're following the electoral college predictions on this site, you'd see that all of the major analysts say Obama will win in November.
But one model by the University of Colorado (released in late August) projects Romney to win in a landslide so I wanted to share that here for your review.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
According to their analysis, ... Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent...
Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight still projects a likely Obama victory.
Read more at http://www.nationalpolls.com/stories/2012/0905-univ-colorado-prediction.html#rvCBPqJcj1ZiZ7w4.99
University of Colorado Prediction Model: Romney Wins 320-218
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